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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.