How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.